約翰遜敢於冒險，這會讓事情更有看頭。
Johnson is a risk taker, however, and things could become more interesting.
七月底英國保守黨投票選出新黨魁，這也意味著英國迎來了新任首相。鮑里斯•約翰遜無需通過全國大選即可合法地出任首相，但即使在保守黨內部他也是個很有爭議的人物。
The internal election of a new British Conservative Party leader at the end of July also meant that the United Kingdom (UK) got a new prime minister. Boris Johnson comes to power therefore via a route with no national election to legitimize him. He is also, even in his own party, a divisive figure.
約翰遜敢於冒險，這會讓事情更有看頭。
Johnson is a risk taker, however, and things could become more interesting.
七月底英國保守黨投票選出新黨魁，這也意味著英國迎來了新任首相。鮑里斯•約翰遜無需通過全國大選即可合法地出任首相，但即使在保守黨內部他也是個很有爭議的人物。
The internal election of a new British Conservative Party leader at the end of July also meant that the United Kingdom (UK) got a new prime minister. Boris Johnson comes to power therefore via a route with no national election to legitimize him. He is also, even in his own party, a divisive figure.
▲ 7月23日，在英國倫敦，當選英國保守黨領袖的鮑里斯•約翰遜抵達保守黨總部後揮手。（圖/新華）
Boris Johnson waves as he arrives at Conservative Party headquarters in London, England, July 23. (Photo/Xinhua)
儘管如此，他還是信誓旦旦地表示要完成前兩任首相（卡梅倫和特蕾莎•梅）的未竟事業：帶領英國脫離歐盟，履行2016年英國全民公投結果的承諾。這個規劃的主要內容是要描繪一幅“全球英國”的新藍圖，而中國幾乎毫無疑問會在其中佔有重要分量。
In spite of this, he has promised to achieve what his two predecessors, David Cameron and Theresa May, failed to do: take the UK out of the European Union (EU), fulfilling the wishes of the British people in a referendum held in June 2016. A major part of this scheme will be to construct a new narrative for a "Global Britain," and China will almost certainly figure in it.
自信過頭？
Over Confident?
和脫歐黨領袖奈傑爾•法拉奇（獨立黨前領袖）不一樣，約翰遜沒有逃避責任。當機會出現時，他挺身而出，積極投身於三年前就極力支持的事業。他這樣做很有可能是出於傲慢自負，而非別的原因。約翰遜沒有特雷莎•梅那麼充足的時間，他只有所剩不多的數月時間來證明自己並非只講空話。
Unlike Nigel Farage, former leader of the UK Independence Party and now heading the Brexit Party, Johnson has not shirked responsibility. When the chance came he put himself forward to implement something he was a key proponent of three years ago. This may well be due to hubris and over confidence rather than anything else however. Unlike May, Johnson has only a few months to prove he is about more than just empty rhetoric.
在對華關係這個具體問題上，說話經常引用拉丁語和希臘語的約翰遜不可能一無所知，但沒有任何跡象表明他在對華關係上有任何深刻的承諾或新的見地。他不像前財政大臣喬治•奧斯本那樣個人就對中國充滿濃厚的興趣。約翰遜曾以倫敦市長的身份於2008年訪問中國，因為倫敦將在北京之後舉辦奧運會，他這樣做只是在例行公事。他在擔任英國外交大臣期間（這段時間他業績不佳狀況頻出）多次推遲了擬定的訪華計劃，最後他乾脆不再訪華。
On the specific issue of relations with China, the Latin-and-Greek-quoting Johnson comes with some knowledge, but no real indication of any deep commitment or fresh vision. He does not, like former Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, have any evident strong personal interest in China. He visited as Mayor of London in order to fulfill his duties as the succeeding host city of the Olympics in 2008. But during his time as foreign secretary, one characterized by poor judgment and under-performance, he postponed a number of proposed trips to China and in the end, he simply never visited.
鑑於約翰遜的這些行事記錄，北京對他存有戒心是完全可以理解的，和大多數人一樣，中國也持觀望態度，最終還是要看約翰遜領導團隊的行動而非言辭。約翰遜的優點是知人善用，善於把可靠的謀士團結在自己周圍。因此在對華關係上，關注的焦點不應是他以往在發展對華關係上乏善可陳，或者他是否清楚如何和中國打交道，而是他是否在對華關係上實事求是，是否願意任用可靠的顧問，採納意見，以彌補他在這方面的經驗不足。
This track record means that Beijing has good grounds for regarding him with skepticism, joining the very large group of people who are simply taking a wait and see approach to what actions, rather than words, flow from his leadership. One attribute Johnson does have is an ability to delegate well, and to gather credible advisors around him. On China, therefore, the key issue is not so much his lack of track record and any demonstrable knowledge, but whether he is honest about this and hires people he trusts and listens to who can compensate for his inexperience.
或許現在英國外交部還缺乏這樣的能人。約翰遜在2016年—2018年擔任外交大臣期間並沒有給人留下多少美好的回憶。他經常對下屬的工作彙報和建議表現得漫不經心，而且總的來說和公務員們也只是泛泛之交，這說明有可能給他出謀劃策的人將會來自這些部門之外。
These figures may not be in the British Foreign Office, where memories of his time in office from 2016 to 2018 are not happy ones. Johnson's often cavalier attitude toward their briefings and advice, and his brittle relations with civil servants generally, means that his likely sources of advice will be from outside these fields.
處在十字路口
At a Crossroads
但是約翰遜敢於冒險，這會讓事情更有看頭。中英關係正處在十字路口：在所有主要世界經濟體中，中英兩國的經濟聯繫是最微不足道的。澳大利亞、美國和德國最大的貿易伙伴都是中國，而英國最大的貿易伙伴不是中國，愛爾蘭和盧森堡排在中國之前，在英國的外來投資中，中國投資佔比不到2%。就普通英國老百姓的經濟生活而言，有沒有中國的參與無關緊要，而中國企業對他們來說就好似不存在一樣。
Johnson is a risk taker, however, and things could become more interesting. The relationship with China is at a crossroads: of the major global economies, the economic links between the UK and China are the most underwhelming. Unlike Australia, the United States or Germany, China is not the UK’s largest trading partner. Ireland and Luxembourg rank higher, while Chinese investment in the UK is less than 2 percent. For the economic life of the average British person, China is peripheral, while Chinese companies are almost invisible.
說到這裡，有一點得連帶提一下。2016年的脫歐公投使大家看清了英國人民是如何看待其歐洲鄰國的，是好是壞直言不諱，但中國在他們心中的形象卻幾乎不得而知。中英兩國的交往，無論是商務、學術還是更廣泛意義上的社會交流，都還侷限於專家級別。英國在上述幾個領域的專業水平堪稱世界一流，但其他方面的能力卻差強人意。每年英國全國有300多人畢業於和中國研究相關的專業，但這個數目和20年前基本持平。所以，儘管英國人可以讀懂中國的唐詩，但他們卻甚至連“謝謝你”這樣簡單的普通話都不會說，這體現了一種巨大的反差，在其他知識領域英國的水平也差不多這樣。
There is an associated point to this. While we now know—thanks to the 2016 EU referendum—what British people think of their European neighbors, warts and all, how they regard China is much more of a mystery. Engagement with China, whether in business, academia or more generally in society, is still a specialist area. The UK has world class expertise in these areas, but almost next to no capacity elsewhere. It produces 300 graduates in Chinese studies nationally a year, a zero percent increase over the level from two decades ago. Therefore, the British can understand Tang Dynasty (618-907) era poetry but can't even say "thank you" in Mandarin. This is indicative of a huge variance, and levels in other areas of knowledge are similar.
對大多數英國人來說，中國是個遙遠的國度，儘管北京和倫敦之間的距離遠比倫敦和悉尼之間的距離短得多。英國總體的教育體系基本不介紹中國歷史、中國政治和中國文化。在英國，一個人可以終其一生對有關中國的任何信息不聞不問。現在掌握的少量可靠證據顯示，英國老百姓對中國這個世界第二大經濟體的看法不褒不貶，他們基本上就是對中國漠不關心。
To most British people, China is remote despite the fact that Beijing is much closer to London than it is to Sydney. Chinese history, politics and culture are things that are largely passed by in the general education system. Someone can go through life in the UK barely conscious of what is happening in or with China. The simple fact is that from what little solid evidence there is at the moment, the British people are neither positive nor negative about the world's second largest economy, they are on the whole indifferent.
開闢新道路
A New Path
約翰遜正推動英國朝著“全球英國”的方向發展，英國和歐盟的關係將不似從前那樣親密無間。如果他能在英國老百姓的生活中提升中國的分量，這將有可能從根本上改變上述狀況。目前約翰遜仍然人氣很高，如果他能稍向中國示好並加強聯繫，讓英國老百姓知道為什麼中國對英國的重要性日益增加，那麼中英兩國之間則有可能迎來一種新型的關係。
As he drives the UK toward becoming a "Global Britain" no longer intimately linked to the EU, Johnson could fundamentally change this dynamic by raising the profile and priority of China for British people. He does have significant influence now, and to see him evincing at least some emotion and engagement with China, and showing why the country increasingly matters to the UK, would potentially create a new kind of relationship.
約翰遜敢於冒險，這會讓事情更有看頭。
Johnson is a risk taker, however, and things could become more interesting.
七月底英國保守黨投票選出新黨魁，這也意味著英國迎來了新任首相。鮑里斯•約翰遜無需通過全國大選即可合法地出任首相，但即使在保守黨內部他也是個很有爭議的人物。
The internal election of a new British Conservative Party leader at the end of July also meant that the United Kingdom (UK) got a new prime minister. Boris Johnson comes to power therefore via a route with no national election to legitimize him. He is also, even in his own party, a divisive figure.
▲ 7月23日，在英國倫敦，當選英國保守黨領袖的鮑里斯•約翰遜抵達保守黨總部後揮手。（圖/新華）
Boris Johnson waves as he arrives at Conservative Party headquarters in London, England, July 23. (Photo/Xinhua)
儘管如此，他還是信誓旦旦地表示要完成前兩任首相（卡梅倫和特蕾莎•梅）的未竟事業：帶領英國脫離歐盟，履行2016年英國全民公投結果的承諾。這個規劃的主要內容是要描繪一幅“全球英國”的新藍圖，而中國幾乎毫無疑問會在其中佔有重要分量。
In spite of this, he has promised to achieve what his two predecessors, David Cameron and Theresa May, failed to do: take the UK out of the European Union (EU), fulfilling the wishes of the British people in a referendum held in June 2016. A major part of this scheme will be to construct a new narrative for a "Global Britain," and China will almost certainly figure in it.
自信過頭？
Over Confident?
和脫歐黨領袖奈傑爾•法拉奇（獨立黨前領袖）不一樣，約翰遜沒有逃避責任。當機會出現時，他挺身而出，積極投身於三年前就極力支持的事業。他這樣做很有可能是出於傲慢自負，而非別的原因。約翰遜沒有特雷莎•梅那麼充足的時間，他只有所剩不多的數月時間來證明自己並非只講空話。
Unlike Nigel Farage, former leader of the UK Independence Party and now heading the Brexit Party, Johnson has not shirked responsibility. When the chance came he put himself forward to implement something he was a key proponent of three years ago. This may well be due to hubris and over confidence rather than anything else however. Unlike May, Johnson has only a few months to prove he is about more than just empty rhetoric.
在對華關係這個具體問題上，說話經常引用拉丁語和希臘語的約翰遜不可能一無所知，但沒有任何跡象表明他在對華關係上有任何深刻的承諾或新的見地。他不像前財政大臣喬治•奧斯本那樣個人就對中國充滿濃厚的興趣。約翰遜曾以倫敦市長的身份於2008年訪問中國，因為倫敦將在北京之後舉辦奧運會，他這樣做只是在例行公事。他在擔任英國外交大臣期間（這段時間他業績不佳狀況頻出）多次推遲了擬定的訪華計劃，最後他乾脆不再訪華。
On the specific issue of relations with China, the Latin-and-Greek-quoting Johnson comes with some knowledge, but no real indication of any deep commitment or fresh vision. He does not, like former Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, have any evident strong personal interest in China. He visited as Mayor of London in order to fulfill his duties as the succeeding host city of the Olympics in 2008. But during his time as foreign secretary, one characterized by poor judgment and under-performance, he postponed a number of proposed trips to China and in the end, he simply never visited.
鑑於約翰遜的這些行事記錄，北京對他存有戒心是完全可以理解的，和大多數人一樣，中國也持觀望態度，最終還是要看約翰遜領導團隊的行動而非言辭。約翰遜的優點是知人善用，善於把可靠的謀士團結在自己周圍。因此在對華關係上，關注的焦點不應是他以往在發展對華關係上乏善可陳，或者他是否清楚如何和中國打交道，而是他是否在對華關係上實事求是，是否願意任用可靠的顧問，採納意見，以彌補他在這方面的經驗不足。
This track record means that Beijing has good grounds for regarding him with skepticism, joining the very large group of people who are simply taking a wait and see approach to what actions, rather than words, flow from his leadership. One attribute Johnson does have is an ability to delegate well, and to gather credible advisors around him. On China, therefore, the key issue is not so much his lack of track record and any demonstrable knowledge, but whether he is honest about this and hires people he trusts and listens to who can compensate for his inexperience.
或許現在英國外交部還缺乏這樣的能人。約翰遜在2016年—2018年擔任外交大臣期間並沒有給人留下多少美好的回憶。他經常對下屬的工作彙報和建議表現得漫不經心，而且總的來說和公務員們也只是泛泛之交，這說明有可能給他出謀劃策的人將會來自這些部門之外。
These figures may not be in the British Foreign Office, where memories of his time in office from 2016 to 2018 are not happy ones. Johnson's often cavalier attitude toward their briefings and advice, and his brittle relations with civil servants generally, means that his likely sources of advice will be from outside these fields.
處在十字路口
At a Crossroads
但是約翰遜敢於冒險，這會讓事情更有看頭。中英關係正處在十字路口：在所有主要世界經濟體中，中英兩國的經濟聯繫是最微不足道的。澳大利亞、美國和德國最大的貿易伙伴都是中國，而英國最大的貿易伙伴不是中國，愛爾蘭和盧森堡排在中國之前，在英國的外來投資中，中國投資佔比不到2%。就普通英國老百姓的經濟生活而言，有沒有中國的參與無關緊要，而中國企業對他們來說就好似不存在一樣。
Johnson is a risk taker, however, and things could become more interesting. The relationship with China is at a crossroads: of the major global economies, the economic links between the UK and China are the most underwhelming. Unlike Australia, the United States or Germany, China is not the UK’s largest trading partner. Ireland and Luxembourg rank higher, while Chinese investment in the UK is less than 2 percent. For the economic life of the average British person, China is peripheral, while Chinese companies are almost invisible.
說到這裡，有一點得連帶提一下。2016年的脫歐公投使大家看清了英國人民是如何看待其歐洲鄰國的，是好是壞直言不諱，但中國在他們心中的形象卻幾乎不得而知。中英兩國的交往，無論是商務、學術還是更廣泛意義上的社會交流，都還侷限於專家級別。英國在上述幾個領域的專業水平堪稱世界一流，但其他方面的能力卻差強人意。每年英國全國有300多人畢業於和中國研究相關的專業，但這個數目和20年前基本持平。所以，儘管英國人可以讀懂中國的唐詩，但他們卻甚至連“謝謝你”這樣簡單的普通話都不會說，這體現了一種巨大的反差，在其他知識領域英國的水平也差不多這樣。
There is an associated point to this. While we now know—thanks to the 2016 EU referendum—what British people think of their European neighbors, warts and all, how they regard China is much more of a mystery. Engagement with China, whether in business, academia or more generally in society, is still a specialist area. The UK has world class expertise in these areas, but almost next to no capacity elsewhere. It produces 300 graduates in Chinese studies nationally a year, a zero percent increase over the level from two decades ago. Therefore, the British can understand Tang Dynasty (618-907) era poetry but can't even say "thank you" in Mandarin. This is indicative of a huge variance, and levels in other areas of knowledge are similar.
對大多數英國人來說，中國是個遙遠的國度，儘管北京和倫敦之間的距離遠比倫敦和悉尼之間的距離短得多。英國總體的教育體系基本不介紹中國歷史、中國政治和中國文化。在英國，一個人可以終其一生對有關中國的任何信息不聞不問。現在掌握的少量可靠證據顯示，英國老百姓對中國這個世界第二大經濟體的看法不褒不貶，他們基本上就是對中國漠不關心。
To most British people, China is remote despite the fact that Beijing is much closer to London than it is to Sydney. Chinese history, politics and culture are things that are largely passed by in the general education system. Someone can go through life in the UK barely conscious of what is happening in or with China. The simple fact is that from what little solid evidence there is at the moment, the British people are neither positive nor negative about the world's second largest economy, they are on the whole indifferent.
開闢新道路
A New Path
約翰遜正推動英國朝著“全球英國”的方向發展，英國和歐盟的關係將不似從前那樣親密無間。如果他能在英國老百姓的生活中提升中國的分量，這將有可能從根本上改變上述狀況。目前約翰遜仍然人氣很高，如果他能稍向中國示好並加強聯繫，讓英國老百姓知道為什麼中國對英國的重要性日益增加，那麼中英兩國之間則有可能迎來一種新型的關係。
As he drives the UK toward becoming a "Global Britain" no longer intimately linked to the EU, Johnson could fundamentally change this dynamic by raising the profile and priority of China for British people. He does have significant influence now, and to see him evincing at least some emotion and engagement with China, and showing why the country increasingly matters to the UK, would potentially create a new kind of relationship.
▲ 7月25日，英國首相約翰遜在議會下院發表講話，闡釋“脫歐”政策主張。
On July 25, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a speech in the House of Commons to explain his Brexit policy.
約翰遜可能會重新調整中英關係，追求一種務實的關係，恰到好處地實現互惠互利。這就要求雙方不再糾結於限制現行關係的歷史問題。尤其是英國，必須明確知道自己對中國的所求，並清楚該以何種方式得償所願。英國必須堅持強加兩國互惠互利的關係，於此同時，要想支撐這種關係，英國還必須更系統性地提升本國老百姓目前對中國的認知水平，讓他們更多地瞭解這個日益重要的新夥伴。
What Johnson may do is to reset the relationship, and insist on something that is more tangible, properly reciprocal and pragmatic. That means moving beyond a lot of the history that is constraining things at the moment. It also means a UK which has a clear vision of what it wants from China and how it intends to achieve it, a UK that can insist on a stronger reciprocal relationship, but also needs to back this up by doing something much more systematic about the currently poor knowledge levels of many of its own citizens about this increasingly important new partner.
如果這樣做最終促使中英兩國走向平衡、和諧和可持續發展的關係，並樹起可為世界其他國家效法的典範，那麼這將是了不起的成就。畢竟，在嘗試放棄和歐盟之間目前這種最重要的合作關係之際，英國會在經貿和外交關係上遇到很多新的風險，所以英國必須積極行動起來。當然在這種新背景下不只英國需要承擔風險。如果中國對處在新歷史條件下的英國表現出咄咄逼人，這會有損於中國的聲譽，進而影響中國和世界其他國家的關係。因此，中英兩國如能實現“共贏”則會使其他國家也深受鼓舞。
If the net result of this is a balanced, largely harmonious, sustainable relationship with China which creates a new model the rest of the world can see, then this would be a huge achievement. After all, the new risks that the UK needs to take in its trading and diplomatic relations as it undertakes the experiment of walking away from its most important current set of partnerships in the EU, means that inactivity is not an option. Nor, in this new context, is risk all on the side of London. For China too, actions which are seen as over assertive or aggressive toward the UK in its new era could have reputational effects with how the country relates to the rest of the world. Coming out with "win-win" outcomes in this context could be a huge encouragement for others.
要使上述種種成為可能，約翰遜最終繞不過這個問題：向美國靠攏的慾望強烈，怎麼辦？這很有可能是他最難破解的困境。脫歐意味著勢必要和美國多多達成重要協議，這點特朗普也作了承諾，儘管他附加了很多備註和條件。在中美關係明顯失和的情況下做到既討好美國又不得罪中國將是個非凡的奇蹟。不過對約翰遜來說這只不過是他承諾實現的諸多奇蹟之一。目前，人們還是表示願意給他一次實現奇蹟的機會。
In order to create this possibility, Johnson will have to resolve one final issue: his intense desire to be close to the U.S. This may well be the hardest quandary for him to crack. Leaving the EU for him means making significant deals with the U.S., something Trump has also promised, though with many caveats and qualifications. Keeping the U.S. and China happy at the same time—particularly at the time when they are clearly experiencing major disagreements—would be a miraculous achievement. But for Johnson, it is only one of several miracles he has promised. And at the moment, he is being given the benefit of the doubt.
作者 / 凱瑞•布朗
Author / Kerry Brown
英國倫敦國王學院中國研究院院長
Director of the China Institute at King's College, London.
轉載自微信公眾號“北京週報”